The No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder and the No. 5 seed Dallas Mavericks link up for a pivotal Game 5 on Thursday at 9:30 p.m. ET. On May 13, the Thunder beat the Mavericks 100-96 to even the series 2-2. SportsLine consensus lists Thunder as the 4-point favorite, while the over/under for total points scored is 213 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before you make any Mavericks vs. Thunder picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows Dallas guard Luka Doncic is an all-around threat on the court. Doncic is a streaky shooter from beyond the arc but will thread the needle as a passer. The 25-year-old leads the team in scoring (26.7), rebounds (9.6) and assists (8.8). In Game 3, Doncic logged 22 points, 15 boards and five assists.

The model also knows Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the No. 1 option all season long. Gilgeous-Alexander thrives in the mid-range but has the speed to get past defenders. The two-time All-Star ranks first on the team in points (29.5) and assists (6). In Game 4, he notched 34 points, eight rebounds and five assists.

The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Thunder 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations!

Who wins Mavericks vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 94-61 roll on top-rated NBA picks!